The southern maryland real estate market october 2026 is running balanced across all five counties, with months of supply between 3.0 and 4.5 everywhere. That is not a seller’s market. It is not a buyer’s market either. It is the most honest description of where things stand: sellers who price right are selling, buyers who act decisively are winning, and both sides have more leverage than they did in 2021 and 2022. This report breaks down what actually happened in Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s, Prince George’s, and Anne Arundel counties in October 2026, using data from Bright MLS.
James Armel has worked the southern maryland real estate market since 2011 and is licensed in Maryland and Virginia. The numbers below come directly from Bright MLS, the regional multiple listing service covering the mid-Atlantic. If you have questions about what these numbers mean for your specific situation, call or text (301) 751-9318.
Southern Maryland Real Estate Market October 2026: Five-County Overview
Here is the full data for October 2026, covering all five Maryland counties in James’s service area. Months of supply (MSI) is the clearest indicator of market balance: under 3 favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers, and 3 to 6 is neutral territory.
| County | Units Sold | Median Sold Price | Avg Sold Price | Median List Price | Days on Market | Months Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles County | 161 | $450,000 | $497,432 | $438,500 | 48 | 4.3 |
| Calvert County | 86 | $450,000 | $519,176 | $508,000 | 35 | 3.9 |
| St. Mary’s County | 100 | $428,700 | $464,480 | $475,000 | 40 | 3.6 |
| Prince George’s County | 542 | $447,500 | $455,264 | $449,900 | 38 | 4.5 |
| Anne Arundel County | 516 | $507,340 | $617,705 | $509,900 | 34 | 3.0 |
Source: Bright MLS, October 2026. Months of supply (MSI): under 3 = seller’s market, 3-6 = balanced, over 6 = buyer’s market.
Charles County Real Estate Market October 2026
Charles County recorded 161 closed sales in October 2026, with a median sold price of $450,000 and an average of $497,432. The 48-day median days on market is the longest of any county in this report, and the 4.3 months of supply puts it squarely in balanced territory. One number stands out: the median list price was $438,500, but the median sold price was $450,000. That means the typical Charles County home sold above its list price. That is not what you expect in a balanced market, but it reflects what happens when well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods move quickly and pull the median up, while overpriced homes sit and drag the DOM up. The 48-day DOM is an average that includes both.
For buyers in Charles County in the southern maryland real estate market october 2026, the picture is mixed. If you are looking at Waldorf, La Plata, or White Plains, competition is still real on clean, move-in-ready homes under $500,000. If you are looking at upper-end or rural properties, you have more room to negotiate. For sellers, the data says price it right the first time. Homes that come in overpriced are sitting for 60 or 90 days before the first price drop. At 4.3 months of supply, you do not have the cushion to test the market the way sellers did in 2021 and 2022.
Charles County is the largest market in Southern Maryland by transaction volume. 161 sales in a single month represents significant activity for a county of roughly 180,000 residents. The Maryland Association of Realtors tracks statewide trends that give context to these local numbers. Charles County consistently runs higher DOM than the rest of the region because its inventory includes a larger share of new construction and larger-lot rural homes, both of which take longer to sell regardless of market conditions.
Calvert County Real Estate Market October 2026
Calvert County had 86 sales in October 2026, with a median sold price of $450,000 and an average of $519,176. At 3.9 months of supply and 35 days on market, Calvert is running slightly more competitive than Charles County this month. The interesting contrast here is between the median list price ($508,000) and the median sold price ($450,000). That $58,000 gap tells you that some sellers are still pricing for a market that no longer exists, and buyers are successfully negotiating them down. The homes that come in priced at or under $450,000 are moving in 35 days or less. The ones that start at $508,000 or above are either sitting or taking cuts.
Calvert County’s waterfront and near-waterfront inventory is what drives the average sold price above the median. At $519,176, the average is $69,000 above the median, which means a meaningful number of Chesapeake Bay and Patuxent River properties closed in October at prices well above $500,000. For buyers specifically looking at waterfront homes in Calvert, the southern maryland real estate market october 2026 data suggests waterfront inventory is moving. Working with an agent who knows the specific waterfront submarkets in Prince Frederick, Chesapeake Beach, and Lusby matters more than the county-wide average.
James has worked Calvert County buyers and sellers since 2011, including waterfront transactions on the Chesapeake Bay and Patuxent River. If you are looking at Calvert County waterfront property, the county-level median is not the number to focus on. The specific street, water access type, and condition of the pier or seawall matter more than any aggregate statistic.
St. Mary’s County Real Estate Market October 2026
St. Mary’s County closed 100 transactions in October 2026 at a median sold price of $428,700, the lowest median of any county in this report. The 3.6 months of supply puts it in the more competitive end of the balanced range, and 40 days on market is consistent with a market where motivated buyers and reasonably priced sellers are finding each other. The gap between median list price ($475,000) and median sold price ($428,700) is $46,300, which is the second-largest list-to-sold gap in the region after Calvert County. That gap is not evidence that buyers have unusual leverage. It reflects a wide distribution of property types and price points, from NAS Patuxent River adjacent neighborhoods to rural acreage and waterfront on the St. Mary’s River and Potomac.
St. Mary’s County is unique in the southern maryland real estate market october 2026 because of the influence of NAS Patuxent River. Military families on PCS orders, contractors, and civilian government employees generate a steady baseline of demand that does not exist in purely civilian markets. That steady demand floors the lower end of the market and prevents the kind of inventory accumulation that causes prices to drop in softer markets. Lexington Park, Callaway, and California Maryland all benefit from proximity to the base. Homes in the $350,000 to $450,000 range near Pax River are moving faster than the county-wide 40-day average suggests.
James tours military buyers throughout St. Mary’s County on weekends and has worked PCS transactions at NAS Patuxent River since 2011. For military families arriving on PCS orders, buying a home near NAS Patuxent River requires understanding VA loan timelines, school district options, and which neighborhoods have the most resale liquidity when orders come again.
Prince George’s County Real Estate Market October 2026
Prince George’s County is the highest-volume market in this report by a significant margin. 542 transactions closed in October 2026, nearly as many as the other four counties combined. The median sold price was $447,500, essentially flat with the $449,900 median list price. That near-zero gap between list and sold price is the clearest signal in the entire dataset: Prince George’s County buyers and sellers are agreeing on price with minimal negotiation. That is what a truly balanced market looks like. 38 days on market and 4.5 months of supply confirm it.
At 4.5 months of supply, Prince George’s County has the most available inventory relative to demand of any county in this report. That is good news for buyers. It means you are likely to have multiple options in your price range, real time to do your due diligence, and legitimate room to negotiate on price or repairs without losing the deal. The southern maryland real estate market october 2026 in Prince George’s County is as close to a neutral transaction environment as you will find in the region right now.
The average sold price in Prince George’s County is $455,264, only $7,764 above the median. That tight median-to-average spread means the price distribution is fairly flat, without a heavy tail of ultra-luxury sales pulling the average up the way Anne Arundel’s data shows. Prince George’s County does have its luxury end, particularly in Fort Washington, Upper Marlboro, and communities near Joint Base Andrews, but it is a small fraction of total volume. The U.S. Census Bureau quick facts for Prince George’s County put the population at over 900,000, making it the second-largest county in Maryland. That population base is why transaction volume stays high even in slower markets.
Anne Arundel County Real Estate Market October 2026
Anne Arundel County had the strongest seller-side metrics of any county in the southern maryland real estate market october 2026 data. 516 sales closed at a median price of $507,340, with the fastest days on market of the five counties at 34 days and the tightest months of supply at 3.0. At 3.0 MSI, Anne Arundel is on the edge of seller’s market territory. The median sold price of $507,340 against a median list price of $509,900 means homes are selling within $2,560 of ask on the median. That is essentially full-price offers on the typical transaction.
The most striking number in the Anne Arundel dataset is the average sold price: $617,705. That is $110,365 above the median. When the average is that far above the median, it means the upper end of the market is very active and pulling the average up. Anne Arundel’s luxury and waterfront inventory on the Chesapeake Bay, South River, and Severn River is driving that gap. Annapolis waterfront and near-waterfront homes closing in the $1M to $3M range will move the average considerably when you have 516 total transactions in the month. For buyers and sellers at the median price point, the $617,705 average is not relevant to their transaction.
At 3.0 months of supply, Anne Arundel County buyers need to be prepared to move quickly and make competitive offers. The National Association of Realtors defines 6 months of supply as a balanced national benchmark. At 3.0 months, Anne Arundel County is well below that level, meaning local buyers face more competition relative to available inventory than the national average suggests.
What the Southern Maryland Real Estate Market October 2026 Means for Buyers
If you are buying in the southern maryland real estate market october 2026, the data gives you a clear picture of where you have room and where you do not. Anne Arundel at 3.0 MSI is the tightest market. If you are shopping under $550,000 in Annapolis, Crofton, or Severna Park, expect competition and plan for near-list-price offers on clean homes. Prince George’s County at 4.5 MSI is the most buyer-friendly county in the report. You have inventory, you have negotiating room, and the near-zero list-to-sold gap says sellers are not getting premium offers that push prices above ask.
Across all five counties, buyers in October 2026 are in a better position than they were in 2021 or 2022 by every measurable metric: more inventory, longer DOM, more room to negotiate inspection repairs. What has not changed is that well-priced, clean, move-in-ready homes in the right neighborhoods are still moving fast. The 34 to 48 day DOM range means you have time, but not unlimited time. Getting pre-approved before you search is not optional. Sellers in this market still receive multiple offers on the right homes, and an offer without a pre-approval letter goes to the bottom of the stack regardless of price.
Mortgage rates are a real factor in the southern maryland real estate market october 2026. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey tracks weekly 30-year fixed rate averages and is the most reliable public source for current rate data. Where rates land determines how much house your payment buys. At $450,000 median across four of the five counties, the monthly principal and interest payment difference between a 6% and a 7% rate on a 20% down payment is roughly $270 per month. That is real money over the life of a loan.
First-time buyers in Southern Maryland have access to meaningful assistance programs. The Maryland DHCD homeownership programs page lists current down payment assistance and mortgage credit certificate programs. For buyers using VA loans near NAS Patuxent River or Joint Base Andrews, the zero-down benefit is significant at the $425,000 to $500,000 price points that dominate this market. James has worked first-time buyers and VA borrowers throughout all five counties and can walk you through which programs apply to your income and target price range.
What the Southern Maryland Real Estate Market October 2026 Means for Sellers
If you are selling in the southern maryland real estate market october 2026, the most important message in the data is this: the market rewards correct pricing and punishes overpricing. The list-to-sold gap in Calvert County ($508,000 median list, $450,000 median sold) and St. Mary’s County ($475,000 median list, $428,700 median sold) shows what happens when sellers price above where the market is willing to close. Those homes are either sitting for extra weeks or months before a price reduction, or they are accepting large negotiated cuts at the end of a long DOM. Neither outcome is good.
Charles County sellers have an interesting data point working in their favor: median sold price of $450,000 versus median list price of $438,500. That means the median Charles County home sold above its list price. That happens when well-priced homes generate competition and close over ask, pulling the sold median above the list median. The lesson for Charles County sellers is that pricing at market value, not above it, is the strategy that generates the best outcome. Coming in at $438,500 on a home worth $450,000 is not leaving money on the table if the competition drives you to $455,000. Coming in at $475,000 and sitting for 90 days before dropping to $445,000 leaves more money on the table in carrying costs and negotiating position.
For sellers considering whether to sell now or wait, the southern maryland real estate market october 2026 data does not give a compelling reason to wait. All five counties are in balanced to mild seller’s market territory. If rates drop, more buyers enter the market and competition increases. If rates rise, purchasing power contracts and you face fewer buyers. The best time to sell is when you are ready to sell and the home is prepared correctly. For a full guide on how to price your home in the current Southern Maryland market, see the how to price your home in Southern Maryland guide on this site.
Southern Maryland Real Estate Market October 2026: Key Takeaways by County
161 sales. Median $450K. 48 days. MSI 4.3. Sold above list on the median. Price right to generate competition.
86 sales. Median $450K. 35 days. MSI 3.9. $58K list-to-sold gap. Buyers negotiating overpriced homes down successfully.
100 sales. Median $428,700. 40 days. MSI 3.6. Military demand near Pax River supports the lower end. $46K list-to-sold gap.
542 sales. Median $447.5K. 38 days. MSI 4.5. Most balanced market. Near-zero list-to-sold gap. Best county for buyers right now.
516 sales. Median $507K. 34 days. MSI 3.0. Strongest seller’s market in the region. Full-price offers on median homes. Luxury pulling avg to $617K.
How to Read Months of Supply in the Southern Maryland Real Estate Market
Months of supply (MSI) is calculated by dividing current active listings by the monthly sales rate. If there are 430 active listings in Charles County and 161 sales per month, that is 2.7 months of supply at the current pace. The number tells you how long it would take to sell through all current inventory if no new listings came to market. The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) tracks national housing supply data for context. The historical neutral benchmark nationally is 6 months. Southern Maryland has run below 6 months for most of the period since 2020, which is why prices have been sticky even as transaction volume has moderated from the COVID-era peak.
What the southern maryland real estate market october 2026 MSI data tells you in plain terms: Anne Arundel County at 3.0 is the tightest supply situation in this group. If you are a buyer there, you have 3 months of inventory to work through before supply runs out at the current pace. That is not a lot of runway. St. Mary’s County at 3.6 and Calvert County at 3.9 are also supply-constrained. Charles County at 4.3 and Prince George’s County at 4.5 are the most balanced, meaning buyers have more options and more time. None of these markets is at 6 or above, which would signal a clear buyer’s advantage.
One limitation of MSI as a metric: it treats all price ranges and neighborhoods within a county as one market, which they are not. In Charles County, the market for $350,000 to $425,000 homes in Waldorf is meaningfully different from the market for $700,000+ homes in La Plata or Bryans Road. County-level MSI is a useful compass, but it is not a substitute for neighborhood-level analysis when you are making a specific buy or sell decision. If you want that neighborhood-level read on the southern maryland real estate market october 2026, call James at (301) 751-9318.
Context: Where Southern Maryland Fits in the Broader Maryland Market
Maryland statewide data puts Southern Maryland’s October 2026 numbers in context. The Maryland Association of Realtors monthly statistics show statewide median prices and DOM that the Southern Maryland counties generally track, with Southern Maryland running slightly below the statewide median and slightly above the statewide DOM because of its more suburban and rural character compared to Montgomery and Howard counties.
The Southern Maryland counties covered here (Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel) together account for roughly 1,400 transactions per month at October 2026 volumes, with Prince George’s and Anne Arundel making up approximately 75% of that volume. The three core Southern Maryland counties (Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s) are smaller markets but have strong fundamental demand drivers: government and military employment at NAS Patuxent River and Joint Base Andrews, waterfront lifestyle appeal on the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River, and commuter proximity to Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Those demand drivers do not go away in a balanced market. They just mean the right product at the right price moves well, and the wrong product at the wrong price sits.
Southern Maryland Market Data and What to Expect at Closing
The median prices in the southern maryland real estate market october 2026 data translate into real closing cost numbers that buyers and sellers need to plan for. At a $450,000 purchase price in Charles County, Maryland transfer and recordation taxes for the buyer typically run $3,000 to $5,000 depending on whether the buyer qualifies for first-time buyer exemptions. Sellers pay the state transfer tax (0.5% of the sale price) plus any county recordation tax portion allocated to the seller in the contract. For a full breakdown of what to expect at closing in Maryland, see the what to expect at closing in Maryland guide. Maryland’s property records for each county are publicly accessible through the Maryland SDAT Real Property search at dat.maryland.gov, where you can verify the assessed value and ownership history of any property before making an offer.
Frequently Asked Questions: Southern Maryland Real Estate Market October 2026
Is October 2026 a good time to buy a home in Southern Maryland?
Yes, for buyers who are financially ready. The southern maryland real estate market october 2026 data shows balanced conditions across all five counties, with months of supply between 3.0 and 4.5. You have more inventory and more time to decide than buyers had in 2021 and 2022. Prince George’s County at 4.5 MSI is the most buyer-friendly market in the region right now. The main constraint is mortgage rates, not competition. Get pre-approved, know your price range, and make clean offers on the right properties.
Which Southern Maryland county has the lowest median home price in October 2026?
St. Mary’s County has the lowest median sold price of the five counties covered in this report, at $428,700 in October 2026. Charles County and Calvert County both came in at $450,000 median, Prince George’s County at $447,500, and Anne Arundel County at $507,340. Keep in mind that median price is a midpoint, not a ceiling. St. Mary’s County has homes at every price point, from $275,000 starter homes near Lexington Park to waterfront estates on the Potomac and St. Mary’s River above $1 million.
How long does it take to sell a home in Southern Maryland in 2026?
Based on October 2026 Bright MLS data, median days on market across the five counties ranged from 34 days (Anne Arundel County) to 48 days (Charles County). The median across the region is approximately 39 days. Those figures are for the median home. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes in desirable neighborhoods move in 10 to 21 days. Overpriced homes or homes with significant condition issues can sit for 60 to 90 days or longer before the first price reduction. Pricing correctly from day one is what determines DOM in this market.
Are homes selling above asking price in Southern Maryland right now?
It depends on the county and the price point. In Charles County, the median sold price of $450,000 is higher than the median list price of $438,500, which means the typical home sold above list. Anne Arundel County shows homes selling within $2,560 of the median list price. In Calvert County and St. Mary’s County, median sold prices are $46,000 to $58,000 below median list prices, reflecting significant negotiation on overpriced listings. The takeaway: correctly priced homes in strong demand areas still see multiple offers and can sell above ask. Overpriced homes do not.
What is months of supply and what does it mean for the Southern Maryland market?
Months of supply (MSI) measures how many months it would take to sell all current active listings at the current pace of sales. Under 3 months favors sellers. Over 6 months favors buyers. Between 3 and 6 is balanced. In October 2026, all five Southern Maryland counties are between 3.0 and 4.5 months of supply, which means none of them is a clear buyer’s or seller’s market. Anne Arundel at 3.0 is the closest to seller’s market conditions. Prince George’s County at 4.5 is the most balanced, giving buyers the most options and negotiating room.
How does the Southern Maryland real estate market compare to the national average in 2026?
The National Association of Realtors uses 6 months of supply as a national balanced market benchmark. All five Southern Maryland counties are running below 6 months (3.0 to 4.5), meaning the region is tighter than the national neutral benchmark. Southern Maryland median prices at $428,700 to $507,340 are above the national median existing home sale price, which typically runs in the $400,000 range nationally. The region benefits from proximity to the Washington D.C. metro job market, federal government and military employment, and waterfront inventory that holds value better than purely suburban or rural markets elsewhere in the country.
Should I sell my home in Southern Maryland before the end of 2026?
The market data does not give a strong reason to rush to beat any deadline. Southern Maryland inventory is not at a level that suggests a price collapse is coming. What the data does show is that the spring 2027 market will likely bring more listings and more competition, as it does every year. Sellers who go to market in October and November sometimes benefit from less competition than they would face in March or April. If your home is ready and your situation requires moving, the southern maryland real estate market october 2026 data supports moving forward now. If you are waiting for a significantly stronger seller’s market, there is no current signal that one is imminent.
Ready to Buy or Sell in Southern Maryland?
James Armel has worked buyers and sellers across Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s, Prince George’s, and Anne Arundel counties since 2011. He is licensed in Maryland and Virginia, works military PCS buyers on weekends, and gives you his investor’s read on market conditions alongside the standard agent service. No hype, no manufactured urgency. Just the actual numbers and what they mean for your specific situation. Call or text (301) 751-9318, or use the form below.
Disclaimer: Market data in this post comes from Bright MLS for October 2026 and reflects closed transactions reported to the MLS during that period. Figures represent county-wide medians and averages, not specific neighborhoods or property types. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. Consult a licensed Maryland real estate agent for guidance specific to your property and situation.
Sources
- Bright MLS: October 2026 market statistics for Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s, Prince George’s, and Anne Arundel counties
- Maryland Association of Realtors: Statewide monthly housing statistics
- National Association of Realtors: Existing home sales data and months of supply benchmark
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: Weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate averages
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): Monthly supply of houses nationally
- Maryland DHCD Homeownership Programs: Down payment assistance and mortgage credit certificate programs
- Maryland SDAT Real Property Search: County property records and assessed values
- U.S. Census Bureau: Prince George’s County population and demographic data
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